Ukraine hints at end to ‘hot war’ with Russia in 2025

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Zelenskyy’s ‘subtly shifting’ messaging

Having “long vowed to fight for every last inch of his country’s land,” Zelenskyy’s pivot towards if not a diplomatic solution than at least a diplomatic stopgap is a “major shift for the Ukrainian leader,” The Washington Post said. Around a fifth of Ukrainian territory is under Russian control, and Zelenskyy’s suggestion that NATO membership could cool the open warfare is the first time he’s “hinted at a ceasefire deal that would include Russian control of Ukrainian territory,” Sky News said.

Zelenskyy continued to frame NATO membership as a potential off ramp for the fighting in remarks to Ukraine’s diplomatic corps this month, when he stressed the need to “fight to persuade allies to allow it to take up NATO membership,” which he said was “achievable,” The Guardian said. The remarks coincided with a “shake-up of his diplomatic team, including Kyiv’s envoy to the United Nations,” Newsweek said.

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At stake is not simply Ukraine itself, but the global implications of any adverse deals for Ukraine. NATO seems to want to avoid North Korea, China, Russia and Iran high-fiving “each other because we got into a bad deal,” said NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte to The Journal.

Accordingly, Trump’s reelection has “given new urgency to negotiation efforts,” The Wall Street Journal said. Zelenskyy’s shifting rhetoric is a sign that his government “understands things are going to change” with the incoming administration, said former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul to The Washington Post. Trump’s election has afforded Zelenskyy an out from his staunch refusal to cede any territory, McFaul said. Zelenskyy can now say to his constituents that he would have “loved to have done that, but Trump has come in and things have changed.”

While hostilities are ongoing, Zelenskyy’s seeming openness to downgrading the conflict from its current state has been taken by many analysts as a sign that 2025 could be a major milestone toward ending Europe’s worst warfare since World War II. But openness and actual peace are two very different entities, and as is probably to be expected with a vast and complicated geopolitical conflict, opinions vary.

A ‘new urgency’ ahead of a new administration

Zelenskyy’s openness to a diplomatic process, while a potentially positive sign, would still require “a lengthier process and the agreement of all member states” before actual NATO membership would be pursued, The Associated Press said. At the same time, there remains “uncertainty as to the foreign policy stance of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump” who “twice refused to directly answer a question about whether he wanted Ukraine to win the war — raising concerns that Kyiv could be forced to accept unfavorable terms in any negotiations.”

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